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WARNING !
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General Mountain Weather Forecast |
2-21-19 Colder today with mostly cloudy skies slowly clearing later today and moderate to strong Westerly winds becoming Northerly through the day. Snowfall is expected through the morning into the afternoon. Snowfall will slowly taper off this evening beginning in the Northern ranges first and diminishing through the Southern ranges with possible lingering snowshoers for Friday morning. Snow levels will range between 3,000'/ 914m to below 2,000'/ 610m today and tonight. Snow accumulations are forecast to range from 1"/2.5cm in the San Gabriel Mountains to 7"/ 17.5cm in the San Bernardino Mountains. A Winter Storm Warming will remain in effect until 1:00am tomorrow morning. Friday will begin drying and clearing as dry clear weather is expected into next week. Temperatures are going to remain below seasonal averages through mid week next week. Some warming is expected for that later part of next week.
Hint: for historical weather forecast data use our facebook page as all posts are there on a running timeline.
For more details check each areas forecast and weather stations for most current information.
Hint: for historical weather forecast data use our facebook page as all posts are there on a running timeline.
For more details check each areas forecast and weather stations for most current information.
Snowpack Summary February 14, 2019
Posted by Allen Giernet @ 7:20am
This summary applies to backcountry areas only.
The Bottom Line – We finally have a snowpack….. now comes rain!
Following the recent cold storm a couple of days of lovely powder was gifted to Southern California. Even though some concerns were presented with cautious travel and judicious terrain selection a good time was possible. We now have two warm storms coming in to make a radical change in conditions. We are outlining the problems and progression below.
Persistent Slab avalanches are likely on Northern aspects and could be large. In the San Gabriel Mountain range we found two distinctive layers of Graupel approximately 12”/30cm and 22”/55cm down at 7,700’/ 2,347m. Both layers were very reactive and reports from the Eastern end of the range show these layers as being widespread. Snow studies in the Western end of the range did not reveal these layers but that does not eliminate the possibility due to spatial variation. Its quite possible this is variable throughout the mountains and presenting in pockets of instability. The touchy nature of these two layers and amount of snow make these a high concern for the next several days. On slopes 30° or greater exercise extreme caution and be sure to see if these layers are present. Even if not present where you search know it is quite possible these layers may exist. The caveat here is with the warm storms we are receiving this weekend where snow levels will be above 10,000’/ for most of the storms cycles there will be ample water to heal these weak layers, but that will present our other concerns.
Wet Slab Avalanches and Wet Loose Avalanches will become likely as the warm storm continues to deliver water to practically the entire snowpack. With snowlines of 10,000’ or higher and precipitation rates of over 2”, water will infiltrate the snowpack and weaken any bonds between weak layers or slick surfaces and loose or slab layers above. As the rain on snow continues these conditions will become more likely and possibly continue into Saturday. These problems will replace the persistent slab problem as that will become our prime Wet Slab concern. Ultimately Friday into Saturday will become much colder and any rain saturated snow will begin to refreeze and present our most common concern in So Cal. The infamous “slide for life” The weekend will round out with some light snowfall and put a little dusting onto a very firm and fast snow surface through Sunday. Expect firm and fast conditions beginning as early as Friday through the weekend at all elevations. Travel in the back country on all aspects will be slick. Be well aware of whats below and know that a slip and fall could quickly turn into a fast slide with little to no hope of arrest. A slide int these conditions could end in catastrophic results. Be sure to have the proper equipment to deal with these conditions (ice axe and crampons) in steep terrain and the experience to use them.
Driving will become treacherous as well once the temperatures drop and wet roads freeze. Think twice before driving into the mountains without a vehicle that has snowtires, four wheel or all wheel drive or at least chains and the being comfortable driving on icy roads. All too often with our large population near the mountains people drive into these areas without considering this and cause serious problems. This was the case last Sunday as the Mt. Baldy road was shut down for well over 10 hours and left numerous people stranded. Think twice before becoming the problem!!!
Exercise caution on slopes >30°. Be well aware of your surroundings and changing conditions throughout the day and your travel area. Expect variable conditions, be prepared with the proper equipment and plan accordingly.
Posted by Allen Giernet @ 7:20am
This summary applies to backcountry areas only.
The Bottom Line – We finally have a snowpack….. now comes rain!
Following the recent cold storm a couple of days of lovely powder was gifted to Southern California. Even though some concerns were presented with cautious travel and judicious terrain selection a good time was possible. We now have two warm storms coming in to make a radical change in conditions. We are outlining the problems and progression below.
Persistent Slab avalanches are likely on Northern aspects and could be large. In the San Gabriel Mountain range we found two distinctive layers of Graupel approximately 12”/30cm and 22”/55cm down at 7,700’/ 2,347m. Both layers were very reactive and reports from the Eastern end of the range show these layers as being widespread. Snow studies in the Western end of the range did not reveal these layers but that does not eliminate the possibility due to spatial variation. Its quite possible this is variable throughout the mountains and presenting in pockets of instability. The touchy nature of these two layers and amount of snow make these a high concern for the next several days. On slopes 30° or greater exercise extreme caution and be sure to see if these layers are present. Even if not present where you search know it is quite possible these layers may exist. The caveat here is with the warm storms we are receiving this weekend where snow levels will be above 10,000’/ for most of the storms cycles there will be ample water to heal these weak layers, but that will present our other concerns.
Wet Slab Avalanches and Wet Loose Avalanches will become likely as the warm storm continues to deliver water to practically the entire snowpack. With snowlines of 10,000’ or higher and precipitation rates of over 2”, water will infiltrate the snowpack and weaken any bonds between weak layers or slick surfaces and loose or slab layers above. As the rain on snow continues these conditions will become more likely and possibly continue into Saturday. These problems will replace the persistent slab problem as that will become our prime Wet Slab concern. Ultimately Friday into Saturday will become much colder and any rain saturated snow will begin to refreeze and present our most common concern in So Cal. The infamous “slide for life” The weekend will round out with some light snowfall and put a little dusting onto a very firm and fast snow surface through Sunday. Expect firm and fast conditions beginning as early as Friday through the weekend at all elevations. Travel in the back country on all aspects will be slick. Be well aware of whats below and know that a slip and fall could quickly turn into a fast slide with little to no hope of arrest. A slide int these conditions could end in catastrophic results. Be sure to have the proper equipment to deal with these conditions (ice axe and crampons) in steep terrain and the experience to use them.
Driving will become treacherous as well once the temperatures drop and wet roads freeze. Think twice before driving into the mountains without a vehicle that has snowtires, four wheel or all wheel drive or at least chains and the being comfortable driving on icy roads. All too often with our large population near the mountains people drive into these areas without considering this and cause serious problems. This was the case last Sunday as the Mt. Baldy road was shut down for well over 10 hours and left numerous people stranded. Think twice before becoming the problem!!!
Exercise caution on slopes >30°. Be well aware of your surroundings and changing conditions throughout the day and your travel area. Expect variable conditions, be prepared with the proper equipment and plan accordingly.
Avalanche Concern #1
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Avalanche Concern #2
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Avalanche Concern #3
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
General Summary
Avalanche Concern #1 – Persistent Slab Avalanches will be possible on North aspects through the day and will become likely as the rain continues to fall adding weight to the snowpack. As the snow pack gets saturated these could become our Wet Slab Avalanches.
Avalanche Concern #2 – Wet Slab avalanches will become possible through today into this weekend as rain continues to moisten and add weight to the snowpack. They will become likely as weight is added to the snowpack by the rain at all elevations and aspects.
Avalanche Concern #3 – Wet Loose Avalanches will be possible today at all elevations and aspects and will become likely as rain continues to add weight to the snowpack.
General Safety Concern – Beginning as early as Friday morning firm and fast conditions will develop on a refreezing wet snowpack on all aspects and elevations.
Always practice use of avalanche skills when entering avalanche terrain and on steep slopes. Travel with a partner, use proper safe travel practices and carry a beacon shovel and probe. Most importantly know how to use them!
To better understand the challenges and potential variability over the large area we are producing information for please read our Snowpack Summary - Format and Limitations
Snowpack Summary - Format and Limitations
Avalanche Concern #1 – Persistent Slab Avalanches will be possible on North aspects through the day and will become likely as the rain continues to fall adding weight to the snowpack. As the snow pack gets saturated these could become our Wet Slab Avalanches.
Avalanche Concern #2 – Wet Slab avalanches will become possible through today into this weekend as rain continues to moisten and add weight to the snowpack. They will become likely as weight is added to the snowpack by the rain at all elevations and aspects.
Avalanche Concern #3 – Wet Loose Avalanches will be possible today at all elevations and aspects and will become likely as rain continues to add weight to the snowpack.
General Safety Concern – Beginning as early as Friday morning firm and fast conditions will develop on a refreezing wet snowpack on all aspects and elevations.
Always practice use of avalanche skills when entering avalanche terrain and on steep slopes. Travel with a partner, use proper safe travel practices and carry a beacon shovel and probe. Most importantly know how to use them!
To better understand the challenges and potential variability over the large area we are producing information for please read our Snowpack Summary - Format and Limitations
Snowpack Summary - Format and Limitations
Disclaimer:
This Bulletin is designed to generally describe conditions where local variations always occur. Travelers are advised to exercise caution and make slope specific evaluations. As always, please treat this bulletin with appropriately guarded skepticism and make your own assessments. Help to provide more information to the community by reporting your observations
This Bulletin is designed to generally describe conditions where local variations always occur. Travelers are advised to exercise caution and make slope specific evaluations. As always, please treat this bulletin with appropriately guarded skepticism and make your own assessments. Help to provide more information to the community by reporting your observations
Latest Observtions
Click on the observation to go to the full report
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Observation type
Snowpack Location - Top ch 9 at Bear Date (yyyymmdd) - 20190219 Comment - Pit Profile dug in an area in bounds with no snowmaking and minimal skier compaction, however these results still may differ from backcountry. |
Observation type
snowpack Location - Angeles Crest - Highway 2 Date (yyyymmdd) - 20190218 Comment - Had to take Big Tujunga to highway 2 due to a landslide and road closure near red box. Cold, clear morning, with a few cm of "dust on crust." Could tell what happened from the previous storms... 2/14 storm was all rain and turned the snowpack into rock hard ice. 2/15 storm left a few cm, or more in N/NE terrain features. By 11:00pm snow was coming down again, 1-2cm per hour, light winds, and 25 degree temps. Skin track was nearly covered by 2:00pm for our 4th lap Should be great skiing all this week at Waterman, Buckhorn, and Kratka Ridge. The road crews are working very hard to plow and gravel the roads. |
Observation type
- Snowpack Location (general area) - Poopout Hill, San Gorgonio Date (yyyymmdd) - 20190211 Time - 1100 Comment - While clear skies at the test pit, fog was present below 7500 feet with light snow fall. Winds were calm with gusts to 35 mph. Top layer was 30cm of powder (fist hardness), followed by 3cm of ice (knife), 40cm of 4F hardness, a 20cm think layer of ice that was rock solid. The bottom most snow below the ice was mixed, thin, faceted layering. Tilt test did not indicate instability. Compression test slid at 33cm depth with score of 28 and irregular shear quality (Q3); not reproducible. |
Observation type - Snowpack
Location (general area) - Mt Baldy / West Baldy Date (yyyymmdd) - 20190207 Time - 1400 Comment - Parked at Manker Flats at 10:30am on Thursday, February 7th. No wind, clear skies, and cold temps! Used the bootback on the trail to the ski hut, then put on skins to ascend the shoulder. As temps rose at 12:00, a cloud covered the peak for 30 minutes and cooled everything off, then clear skies again. At the top of the shoulder, I broke off the trail and summited West Baldy. Probed the Mt Baldy / West Baldy Saddle on SE aspect at 9,500ft. 120cm snow depth. The descent was firm snow up top, followed by a few cm of soft snow on a hard supportable base. The shoulder of Baldy Bowl held the best snow - boot top powder. The remainder of the descent from the ski hut was completely skiable for an adventurer. Logs/rocks/schrubs were completely covered. 2ft of snow on the fire road at 6,700ft. Skied all the way back to the car! Magical day... |
SCSAC T-shirts and Hats now available
for the 2017/ 2018 season with donation
Fundraising
campaign
We are raising funds to purchase and install the first of several weather stations at remote locations in our local mountains. This will bring us much needed pertinent data from above snow line that we doe not have reliable resources for. Satelite link up will bring us snow depth and amounts, along with wind, temperature and much more and will be available to the public.
Our goal is to raise $10,000 to purchase the equipment, cover installations costs and provide for a much needed overhaul of the website.
Please contribute to make this a reality for us all. Click on the donate button below and come out to join our annual fundraiser event at Mt. Baldy
Goal: $10,000 Recieved: $2,500.00
For more information go to the Fundraiser Program page
campaign
We are raising funds to purchase and install the first of several weather stations at remote locations in our local mountains. This will bring us much needed pertinent data from above snow line that we doe not have reliable resources for. Satelite link up will bring us snow depth and amounts, along with wind, temperature and much more and will be available to the public.
Our goal is to raise $10,000 to purchase the equipment, cover installations costs and provide for a much needed overhaul of the website.
Please contribute to make this a reality for us all. Click on the donate button below and come out to join our annual fundraiser event at Mt. Baldy
Goal: $10,000 Recieved: $2,500.00
For more information go to the Fundraiser Program page
2017/18 Events
The Avalanche Center
The Avalanche Center
So Cal snow Fest SCSAC Fundraiser
Free Avalanche
Awareness
Presentations:
Everyone is welcome
California State
University
San Marcos
TBA
In the REC center /
Clarke Field House 333 S. Twin Oaks Valley Rd., San Marcos, CA 92096
Claremont College Outdoor Education Center
601 Amherst Av.
Claremont, Ca. 91711
TBA
The Adventure 16
Free Avalanche
Awareness series
Happy half hour 6:30pm
Presentation 7:00pm
January TBA, 2018
Adventure 16 San Diego
4620 Alvarado Canyon Rd.
San Diegeo, CA, 92120 USA
January TBA, 2018
Adventure 16 Tarzana
5425 Reseda Blvd.
Tarzana, CA, 91356 USA
January TBA, 2018
Adventure 16 West L.A.
11161 W. Pico Blvd.
Los Angeles, CA, 90064 USA
Future dates and events TBA soon be sure to visit the events page for updates and details
Free Avalanche
Awareness
Presentations:
Everyone is welcome
California State
University
San Marcos
TBA
In the REC center /
Clarke Field House 333 S. Twin Oaks Valley Rd., San Marcos, CA 92096
Claremont College Outdoor Education Center
601 Amherst Av.
Claremont, Ca. 91711
TBA
The Adventure 16
Free Avalanche
Awareness series
Happy half hour 6:30pm
Presentation 7:00pm
January TBA, 2018
Adventure 16 San Diego
4620 Alvarado Canyon Rd.
San Diegeo, CA, 92120 USA
January TBA, 2018
Adventure 16 Tarzana
5425 Reseda Blvd.
Tarzana, CA, 91356 USA
January TBA, 2018
Adventure 16 West L.A.
11161 W. Pico Blvd.
Los Angeles, CA, 90064 USA
Future dates and events TBA soon be sure to visit the events page for updates and details
National Ski
Patrol - Local
Claremont Calif. L.A.
Level 1 Class sessions
Registration
6pm - 10pm
January 9th & 11th
Level 2 class sessions
Returning in 2019
Field Sessions
(subject to snow conditions)
January 20th & 21st
February 10th $ 11th
March TBA
Sierra Mountain
Center
Bishop, Ca
Level 1 classes
2017/18 dates are up
Level 2 class
2017/18 Dates are up
Sierra Mountain
Guides
Bishop, Ca.
Level 1 classes
2017/18 Dates are up
Level 2 class
2017/18 Dates are up
Sierra
Mountaineering
International
Bishop, Ca
Level 1 classes
2017/18 Dates are up
Level 2 classes
2017/18 Dates are up
For the current curriculum visit
the AAI & AAIRE
websites
Patrol - Local
Claremont Calif. L.A.
Level 1 Class sessions
Registration
6pm - 10pm
January 9th & 11th
Level 2 class sessions
Returning in 2019
Field Sessions
(subject to snow conditions)
January 20th & 21st
February 10th $ 11th
March TBA
Sierra Mountain
Center
Bishop, Ca
Level 1 classes
2017/18 dates are up
Level 2 class
2017/18 Dates are up
Sierra Mountain
Guides
Bishop, Ca.
Level 1 classes
2017/18 Dates are up
Level 2 class
2017/18 Dates are up
Sierra
Mountaineering
International
Bishop, Ca
Level 1 classes
2017/18 Dates are up
Level 2 classes
2017/18 Dates are up
For the current curriculum visit
the AAI & AAIRE
websites
Slide path in the San Gabriel mountains
Awareness
There are avalanches in So Cal. This sign is on the road just before Mt. Baldy trailhead
General Caution
You should always use safe terrain management and carry avalanche rescue equipment in the backcountry. Most avalanches are triggered by someone in the party or the victim. Practice with your rescue gear often and be prepared should the worst happen. Though we do not have an avalanche forecast center in this area as of yet, the information posted and shared here as well as the resources available on this site will help to make informed decisions for your backcountry travels. Use avalanche forecasts in your travels wherever available and be aware that avalanche ratings are general information. Elevation, location, geographic variability’s, slope aspect and angle all have effects on the particular area you travel in. This is only one piece of the information you should use in your decision making process. There is no substitute for avalanche education, for more resources and information as well as education please refer to our resources page.
You should always use safe terrain management and carry avalanche rescue equipment in the backcountry. Most avalanches are triggered by someone in the party or the victim. Practice with your rescue gear often and be prepared should the worst happen. Though we do not have an avalanche forecast center in this area as of yet, the information posted and shared here as well as the resources available on this site will help to make informed decisions for your backcountry travels. Use avalanche forecasts in your travels wherever available and be aware that avalanche ratings are general information. Elevation, location, geographic variability’s, slope aspect and angle all have effects on the particular area you travel in. This is only one piece of the information you should use in your decision making process. There is no substitute for avalanche education, for more resources and information as well as education please refer to our resources page.
